Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 188.433413 223.239410 264.586141 317.869385 385.511807 469.612507 5.838347e+02
2025-10-05 153.390173 197.713027 256.541783 342.400630 468.159135 651.832813 9.530084e+02
2025-10-12 131.585822 180.254717 250.366111 363.022901 548.389876 859.470096 1.467125e+03
2025-10-19 115.678193 166.110754 243.607734 378.308917 623.030723 1088.179720 2.163077e+03
2025-10-26 102.734207 153.196160 234.913377 386.596909 686.884408 1325.933158 3.063928e+03
2025-11-02 91.778282 141.157581 224.678013 388.617911 738.560695 1564.340677 4.196370e+03
2025-11-09 81.514762 128.476918 210.719567 379.677737 763.815806 1755.436618 5.414332e+03
2025-11-16 73.154526 117.772721 198.323697 370.655352 785.631019 1951.343549 6.928425e+03
2025-11-23 66.110151 108.411436 186.839738 360.786993 802.067537 2143.753827 8.763178e+03
2025-11-30 64.198703 108.047622 192.481264 389.772116 930.504977 2787.785339 1.443591e+04
2025-12-07 60.086650 103.007460 187.922681 394.020550 992.497672 3252.941751 2.063066e+04
2025-12-14 57.055557 99.657828 186.309897 405.085856 1080.605839 3913.983190 3.173582e+04
2025-12-21 53.053780 94.111305 179.568381 402.633528 1128.865621 4474.848477 4.625592e+04
2025-12-28 52.063033 94.518639 186.017733 437.394811 1327.108501 6114.701415 1.000234e+05
2026-01-04 50.617395 93.792497 189.774131 466.008476 1523.251054 8160.274590 2.307949e+05
2026-01-11 48.799318 92.043418 190.825154 487.132034 1705.485830 10587.857899 5.759338e+05
2026-01-18 46.621272 89.254005 188.898352 498.588521 1854.843681 13215.635134 1.548108e+06
2026-01-25 44.233044 85.738614 184.631287 501.385806 1966.636903 15898.756982 4.632192e+06
2026-02-01 41.409365 80.963628 176.486906 489.053453 1993.195844 17725.528753 1.273670e+07
2026-02-08 38.848408 76.564479 168.790845 476.632450 2014.396174 19671.416401 4.698161e+07
2026-02-15 36.478751 72.404771 161.234413 463.076919 2022.946512 21576.344487 2.825696e+08
2026-02-22 36.291319 73.340812 167.586331 502.982280 2399.535353 32846.103439 NaN
2026-03-01 34.886162 71.232312 165.215910 508.853980 2560.165349 41219.698182 NaN